An expert said just one coronavirus patient can infect up to 59,000 people, compared to only 14 with flu.
Dr. Hugh Montgomery of University College London explained how ignoring social distancing can result in a major rise in positive cases.
In an interview with Dispatches, Prof. Montgomery said: “Normal flu, if I get that, I’m going to infect on average, about 1.3, 1.4 people – if there was such a division.
“And if those 1.3, 1.4 people gave it to the next lot, that’s the second time it gets passed on. By the time that’s happened ten times, I’ve been responsible for about 14 cases of flu.
“This coronavirus is very, very infectious, so every person passes it to three.
“Now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three passes it to three, and that happens at ten layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people.”
Prof Montgomery continued: “A few will get sick,at about day ten of their illness, so they will need to come to a hospital.
“When they’re in a hospital they will consume resources and time, and people will look after them quite rightly.
“They will be monitored to see if they become really, really sick. Those people then come to an intensive care unit and that’s where, if you’re critically ill, your life gets saved or not – and this is the issue.
“If we’ve got a limited resource, which we have, a limited number of ventilators, a limited number of doctors, a limited number of nurses – if we overwhelm that, we can’t provide that service of caring for these people properly.”
He added: “I’m not going to play it down, it’s going to be ugly, it’s going to be horrible for a large number of people. But it will be a small number of people who get properly sick and a smaller percentage of those again that need to come to an intensive care unit.
“We can save the lives of a large number of those people too.
“But please just remember the best chance we can give to the people who do fall ill is if we’ve got enough beds and enough staff and enough kit to be able to be there for you.
“If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don’t mind if you get the flu, remember it’s not about you, it’s about everybody else.”
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